Gracie Fighting Championship: Official MMAU Predictions

This weekend The Gracie Fighting Championships fight promotion will make its return to Columbus one year and two months since the events last installment in the same city under the name Gracie Fighting Championships: Evolution The Genesis of Mixed Martial Arts. Hopefully this event will run more smoothly then last years event which was marred by a botched stoppage by Referee Mario Yamasake, resulting in the Ban of MMA from the entire state of Ohio. The main between competitors Daniel Gracie and Wes Sims featured a series of illegal knees to end the second frame by Gracie. However this did not result in a disqualification or even no contest for Gracie. Simms who needed to be taken from the arena on a stretcher was unable to start the second and Daniel Gracie was awarded a TKO victory. Simms appealed the decision and although he would eventually be rewarded with a No Contest, during the deliberations of the case, MMA was temporarily banned throughout the great state of Ohio.

The type of fighters on this years card is indicative of what one might expect from a promotion that borrows the name of the greatest grappling family in the history of MMA. This card features some of the premier ground experts in the world. Let’s look now to a fight by fight breakdown of the action slated for this Saturday in Columbus.

Phil Cardella vs. Rafael Dias

The first televised event of the evening features Texan native and Jui Jitsui standout Phil Cardella, against rising American Top Team star Rafael Dias. While Cardella does boast a bevy of black belts in striking disciplines as wide ranged as hapkido and tae kwando, he has only defeated one man by strikes and prefers to spend his time in the ring with his opponent grounded. Dias should not be overmatched on the ground having scored a second place finish in the mundials (world BJJ championships) after receiving his black belt from Murilo Bustamante at BTT in 2003. Additionally in training at ATT and rolling with 155 pounders like Hermes Franca, I seriously doubt that Cardella will be able to confound the Brazilian born Dias on the mat. Combine that with the fact that prior to his last draw at Bodog Costa Rica, Dias has finished his last 3 opponents by strikes and you have a recipe for a short night for Cardella.

Demian Maia vs. Ryan Stout

The second match of the evening features newly crowned ADCC world champion in the 87-97 kg division Demian Maia in his MMA debut. (For those unaware the yearly ADCC tournament is widely regarded as the most complete and prestigious grappling tournament in the world featuring qualifiers from all across the globe.) In his premier MMA contest Maia will face off against Ryan Stout who trains with the Integrated Fighting Academy in Indianapolis with UFC competitors Chris Lytle and Jake Shields. Stout has been impressive lately rattling of 5 wins in his last 6 contests. I’m going to have to side with experience in this one, and pick Stout, he comes from a good camp and training with Lytle and Shields his wrestling proficiency should be enough to neutralize much of Maia’s grappling proficiency.

Adam Disabito vs. Chris Brennan

Former three time NCAA Division I all American Adam Disabito looks to extend his 3-0 record in his toughest challenge yet, the game American Jui Jitsui competitor Chris Brennan. With Disabato's chief offense being a good wrestling and ground and pound, and Brennan being a world renowned BJJ competitor expect most of this fight to take place with Disabato attempting to work through Brennons guard. Brennan coming off loses to two of the most feared fighters in the 155 lb weight class in Vitor Ribeiro and Tatsuya Kawajiri, will certainly be hungry to get on the winning side of things. I expect Brennan to have too much experience and submission acumen to let Disabato impose his will. Brennan by submission.

Branden Lee Hinkle vs. Alexandre "Cacareco" Ferreira

This fight features MMA journeyman Branden Lee Hinkle attempting to rebound from two disappointing UFC loses neither of which saw Hinkle make it two the second round. This wont be easy against world class grappler, “Cacareco.” While Hinkle hails from the Hammerhouse, Cacacareco is a Luta Livre, and Marco Ruas Vale Tudo disciple who is more known for his grappling credentials then his MMA prowess. That being said his grappling has emerged as world class in the last several years, finishing 4th in the Absolute division of the 2007 ADCC Championships which took place this month in Trenton New Jersey. Since taking off four years to perfect his ground game “Cacareco” who shares his nickname with a Rhinoceros in the Sao Paulo Zoo has been charging through his competition, amassing four wins and one split decision loss in his last five fights. Each of his victories was accomplished via a first round submission. Famous for his world class takedowns and overpowering grappling techniques expect another early decision for “Cacareco”

Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza vs. Bill Vucick

In what looks to be a fairly one sided affair brazilian standout and former ADCC Absolute Champion “Jacare” faces off against a Pittsburgh fighter Bill Vucick who trains out of a gymnastics studio in Bridgeville Pennsylvania. Look for Jacare to extend his record to 5-1 easily in this one.

Jeff Monson vs. Brian Vanderwalle

Jeff Monson was slated to face off against former Ohio State basketball player and heavyweight competitor Wes Simms in the co-main event of the evening; however contractual issues for Simms negated this possibility. Instead fans will have to settle for another Ohio native Brian Vanderwalle. Vanderwalle sports a 4-3 record and hasn’t seen action since 2004. Expect a quick submission victory from the snowman, who will be happy to face some lighter competition after his previous two taxing contests with former UFC heavyweight champion Tim Sylvia, and the always difficult Japanese heavyweight Kazuyuki Fujita.

Thomas Denny vs. Fredson Paixao

The second main event of the evening features featherweight Jui Jitsui champion Fredson Paixao against former KOTC champion Thomas "Wildman" Denny. This match shows a clash in styles as well as personalities. The Wildman is known for a brawling attacking style perfected over years of MMA fights in the KOTC promotion. Now training out of his own gym in Southern California, Denny faces a very different sort of opponent. Winner of six of the last seven world Jui Jitsui featherweight BJJ championships at Mundial, Paixao brings a more controlled yet equally dominating style of grappling into his MMA contests. Fighting for the lightweight title vacated by another BJJ great Vitor Ribeiro expect this clash of styles to favor the larger more experienced Thomas Denny. Denny who has fought successfully at 170 should be able to avoid the throws and trips of the smaller Paixao who competes in Jui Jitsui competitions at 147, and is probably more suited to contests in that weight range. However do not be surprised if Paixao puts the match in jeopardy with his expert scrambles and submission transitions, especially if Denny is foolish enough to entertain any sort of ground contest.

Overall expect a good card with some of the most prolific grapplers in the world taking there skills to ring in the tradition of the Jui Jitsui stylists that came before them. Check back next week for a report of the full card, including not mentioned under card contests.