Yoshida and Filipovic are two of Pride's biggest drawing cards, and have yet to face each other. There is always anticipation within the first meeting of two superstars, and anticipation equals money.
Less of a drawing card but still rightly so is the Wanderlei Silva vs. Kazuyuki Fujita fight. This bout marks another initial meeting between two stars, although Fujita is hardly a star on the level of Yoshida. Silva is still a strong draw despite his more even record in recent years. The attraction of this fight is the idea of Silva against a Japanese opponent, which has been a strong program that has garnered quite a bit of cash for Pride over the years. Although Fujita lacks charisma, it is possible that Japanese fans will find this fight particularly interesting as it is one of the few instances of Silva facing a Japanese fighter that is much larger than him, thus on paper (but not necessarily in reality) giving Fujita a better chance at victory.
Mark Hunt vs. Josh Barnett and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Fabricio Werdum both hold less appeal for Japanese fans and more appeal for hardcore MMA fans, particularly the latter match. Hunt is a legitimate star in Japan, dating back to his days of winning the K-1 Grand Prix (which instantly creates status). Barnett and Werdum are stars less so, especially Werdum who is still making his name in Pride after a handful of impressive outings. Nogueira is a star, one of whom is big enough to headline a small show but not to carry a major event.
I'm not impressed with the way Pride has handled the semi-final match-ups. The two fights involving Japanese challengers will draw money, but it may leave Pride empty-handed in terms of a Japanese star when it comes to the final four. This was a situation they were faced with last year, and they wound up with a Brazilian vs. Brazilian finale. Arona vs. Rua was a star-making fight for Rua and an interesting match-up for MMA fans, but for the casual Japanese spectator I think it was less interesting than the possibility of seeing one of their own in the finals.
A better combination, in my humble opinion, would have been to match Fujita against Yoshida. In this manner Pride is guaranteed a Japanese fighter in the final four, likely Yoshida by the way the two match-up. Subsequently, I would have pitted Cro Cop against Silva in their rematch. The first bout between the two was fought under Pride vs. K-1 rules and went to a time-limit draw. Under that set of rules, there were no ringside judges, explaining the reason for the draw. Had there been, based on Pride's judging criteria, Silva would have won. Silva is more banged up now, but I believe Cro Cop is no more improved since that point (maybe slightly in ground work merely from in-ring experience) and would gamble that the result winds up the same, but with Silva actually attaining the rightful victory.
Nogueira vs. Werdum is an interesting pairing of grapplers, but two grapplers going at it tends to lead to boring decisions. I don't think this fight will be much different. I better submit to match Nogueira vs. Barnett and Hunt vs. Werdum. With Hunt vs. Werdum, you wind up with the striker vs. grappler match-up that favours Werdum, but gives Hunt a chance due to his clear and surprising propensity for MMA. With Nogueira vs. Barnett, you wind up with a heavyweight dream match to satiate the hardcore fans, one of which would be a more exciting bout for Nogueira than the one in which he is pitted against Werdum.
With my bracketing, you should end up with a final four of Yoshida, Nogueira, Silva and Werdum. I would be tempted to set Yoshida against Nogueira in an initial meeting of stars, and then Silva vs. Werdum. It would be possible, but not likely, for Yoshida to defeat Nogueira. It's hard to say how Silva would fare against Werdum; likely he'd be victorious, but that is not easily determined. If Nogueira won the tournament, you are setting him up with a rematch for the Heavyweight title, which of course is a good idea since Fedor has little in the way of challengers. Yoshida winning would be huge for the Japanese fanbase. Werdum winning would create a new star (such as Mauricio Shogun), and Silva winning does little but to reconfirm the old guard.
With the brackets as they have been announced by Pride, I think you'll end up with a final four of Silva, Cro Cop, Hunt and Nogueira.
The Silva-Fujita is the obvious fight. Fujita defeated b-level heavyweight James Thompson in the opening round. He is a good wrestler with a great chin. Silva is a great Thai-boxer, with a good chin. Silva may have a hard time knocking Fujita out and may have problems dealing with his size on the ground (as he did with Hunt, less experienced in MMA than Fujita), but a decision victory for Silva is obvious.
Nogueira vs. Werdum comes to a fairly obvious conclusion as well. The fight will go the distance, and one of the two will win by decision. Both are high-end grapplers, and neither will submit the other. Nogueira is the better striker, and the better all-around fighter. I feel Nog should pull off the decision.
Hunt vs. Barnett is an interesting proposal. Hunt is far better at MMA than I ever imaged him to be. I recall they signed both him and Stefan Leko out of K-1 at the same time. The paths of those two have certainly differed.
Hunt has a good body type for MMA, has a great chin, has great punching power, and has adapted well to the ground game. Barnett is versatile, and is above-average for heavyweights in grappling. Barnett has been knocked out in the past, specifically by Pedro Rizzo in the UFC, and Hunt stands a great chance of doing the same. However, Barnett should be able to take this fight to the ground and manipulate Hunt into submission. I don't feel that will happen though, and I believe that Barnett's overall record in Pride has been disappointing. My bet is Hunt taking this by TKO, but a number of results are plausible.
Yoshida vs. Cro Cop is the most interesting fight, aside from it being the headline. It is striker vs. grappler. Cro Cop does not fare well against quality grapplers; he was submitted by Nogueira and lost to Fedor. Yoshida is certainly a quality grappler, no arguments about it. Yoshida cannot take a punch, though, and his stand-up game leaves much to be desired. If it goes to the ground and stays there long enough, Yoshida will submit Cro Cop. Cro Cop has that amazing sprawl, so getting him there and keeping him there may be difficult. And remember, each round starts on its feet.
With my results, I would bracket Hunt vs. Silva and Nogueira vs. Cro Cop in the battle of rematches. Both rematches generate interest, and it would be hard to determine who wins. Likely it would end up as Hunt vs. Nogueira, but Silva may defeat Hunt with more time to train for such a large opponent, and Cro Cop nearly knocked Nogueira out in their first meeting.
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