Two titles were defended at UFC 73: Stacked in Sacramento, Calif., this past Saturday and unlike other recent UFC events, the incumbents were both successful.
UFC lightweight champion Sean Sherk was victorious in a five-round decision over Hermes Franca. While it lacked entertainment value and Sherk suffered a couple of scares, he dominated the bout.
Looking even more dominant was UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva, who rebounded from a shaky performance against Travis Lutter at UFC 67: All or Nothing. Competing at full strength, Silva was able to stop Nathan Marquardt with 10 seconds left in the first round.
Seeing Sherk and Silva walk in and out of the cage as champs was a refreshing change considering that we've seen three title changes in the UFC already this year. With the acquisition of the Pride Fighting Championships now complete, we could see even more uncertainty in the UFC title picture due to an expected influx of high-profile talent.
Looking forward, it will be interesting to see who will be wearing gold in the UFC a year from now. Here is what I think the title landscape might be like in 12 months.
Lightweight (155 pounds)
Whether you love or hate Sherk's fighting style, you still have to respect him. The man is a monster at 155 pounds and there isn't a stronger lightweight fighter in the world. Combine his strength with incredible wrestling technique and you have a champion who's going to be hard to beat.
While Sherk's submission skills are good, they aren't world class. His striking has improved but he's not a threat to finish a fight with his fists or feet. The UFC lightweight division is very deep - but is there a fighter currently on the UFC roster that can finish Sherk on the ground? Unlikely. As such, it's likely that the next man to beat Sherk will be a striker with excellent takedown defense.
The biggest test for Sherk from the UFC's 155-pound ranks is BJ Penn. According to Dana White during the post-UFC 73 news conference, the two are expected to fight in November. Penn's submission skills are infinitely better, but will he be able to achieve top position?
Penn is certainly a threat to tap a fighter while in bottom position due to his world-class jiu-jitsu skills, but would Sherk make a mistake that would allow Penn to go for submissions while on the bottom? Penn's best chance for winning the fight is keeping it standing.
Penn almost beat Matt Hughes, who is similar to Sherk (short arms and all), so winning the lightweight title is certainly a possibility. However, even if Penn wins the title, he has made it clear that his desire is to move back to welterweight. We could easily see a situation where Sherk loses his title only to gain it back somehow if Penn were to win and vacate it.
One way or another I fully expect the "Muscle Shark" to still be wearing the UFC lightweight gold a year from now.
Welterweight (170)
A minor miracle will need to take place in order for Serra to remain the UFC welterweight champion a year from now. He'll be the underdog against Hughes later this year and if he's somehow able to upset Hughes, his next title defense could come against the likes of a St Pierre, Josh Koscheck, Karo Parisyan or Jon Fitch. The division is so deep I almost left out Diego Sanchez. There's also a strong chance that a rejuvenated Penn could make his way back to welterweight within the next 6-8 months.
The most vulnerable of all the current champions, Serra's long-term future could be a return to lightweight. In regard to who will be standing atop the UFC's deepest division, you could make a legitimate case for a number of fighters. However, my money is on Penn based simply on the fact that he's the most gifted of all the top contenders at 170 pounds.
Though he lost to St Pierre and Hughes last year, upcoming fights could have different outcomes if Penn is as committed to conditioning as he was for his last fight against Jens Pulver during the season finale of the fifth season of The Ultimate Fighter.
Middleweight (185)
The only way a fighter will beat Silva on his feet is if he is a better striker. But right now there isn't a 185-pound fighter in the world who's a better striker than Silva. That being said, it doesn't mean there aren't better 185-pound fighters out there. Matt Lindland, Dan Henderson and Paulo Filho are the three fighters who have the best chance of dethroning Silva. The thing is that none of them are in the UFC's middleweight division right now, so Silva appears to be in store for a long championship run.
Lindland and Henderson are both superior wrestlers who could expose the holes in Silva's uneven ground game. As for Filho, he could cause problems for Silva as well with submission skills that are off the charts.
Henderson will be fighting at 205 pounds against Quinton "Rampage" Jackson in September. It's a fight he could win, but even if he loses, he's more likely to continue fighting as a light heavyweight as opposed to a middleweight because that's where the bigger money matches are.
Filho and Silva are friends and do not want to fight each other, which is a big reason why Filho will begin his career with Zuffa as a member of the WEC.
As for Lindland, he is an MMA mercenary who is on bad terms with the UFC and is unlikely to return to the promotion anytime soon.
The bottom line is that there isn't anyone currently in the UFC's middleweight division who is a true threat to Silva, Rich Franklin included.
According to various reports, Silva-Franklin II is scheduled for Oct. 20 in Cincinnati. Franklin is a tremendous fighter, but what reason is there to believe the outcome will be any different from their first bout? Franklin has good ground skills, but striking is his strength. If the fight is exclusively a standup affair, he's simply not going to out-strike the best middleweight striker in the world.
Light heavyweight (205)
Jackson is a tremendous talent inside the cage. Outside of it, he has more than enough charisma to supplant Chuck Liddell as MMA's biggest crossover star in the United States. But remaining the UFC light heavyweight champion for a prolonged duration might be too big of a task.
Light heavyweight is the UFC's marquee division, so Jackson won't get to defend his title against any Travis Lutters. In fact, with the influx of talent from Pride, it's safe to say Jackson won't even get to face any Babalu Sobrals.
Forget about a year - it's far from a lock that Jackson will even be able to get past Pride 205- and 185-pound champion Dan Henderson at UFC 75: Champion vs Champion. If Jackson gets past Henderson he could find himself defending against either Liddell or Wanderlei Silva before the year is out.
If Jackson makes it to '08, he could then find himself on a collision course with Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. They have fought once before, with Shogun walking away with a knockout at 4:47 in the first round.
Predicting who will be the UFC light heavyweight champ a year from now is almost too close to call, but if a gun was held to my head then my money would be on Rua, who many already consider to be the top 205-pound fighter in the world.
Heavyweight (265)
Anytime you talk about Randy Couture, you have to be careful not to underestimate him. But I'm not so much underestimating Couture as much as I am showing the competition in his division the proper respect.
The UFC heavyweight division has undergone a remarkable makeover in the past year and the competition is thick. A deep division could become even deeper if Fedor Emelianenko is signed.
Couture's next test will be Aug. 25 against Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 74: Respect. "The Natural" will be favored among mainstream fans going into the fight but the majority of hardcore fans are expecting Gonzaga to walk away with the title. Even if Couture is able to pull out another win, he'll have to defend his title against a division that now includes the likes of Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.
If Fedor signs, he's the obvious pick to be the UFC heavyweight title holder a year from now. In the event that a deal can't be worked out, Nogueira has a great chance to reign supreme. While not as dominant as he might have been two years ago, Nogueira has a blend of striking and ground skills that is unparalleled by anyone currently in the UFC heavyweight division.
)
)
)
)
)
)
