First off just let me get this out of my system. THE CHAMP.....IS.....HERE!!!!! Man that felt good. Well thanks to the glut of UFC programming in June (that's not a complaint, I promise) there's the potential for me to have the second shortest reign as MMATorch Prediction Champion. But I won't be the shortest.
Luckily, no matter what happens, I won't be able to take that coveted distinction away from our good friend Jerry Cattelane. Better luck next time Jerry. So.....Saturday night, our friends over at the UFC bring us the finale of the fifth season of The Ultimate Fighter. The Streetfight Rematch has been bumped, but there's still a decent night of action on tap. I only have two questions; why isn't Joe Lauzon fighting Cole Miller, and where the hell is Corey Hill?!? Oh well, three shows in a week and a half ain't bad no matter how you look at it. Alright it's the moment you've all been waiting for...on to the preview!
Seriously, how did Brian Geraghty make this show and not Corey Hill? All we saw (and all I've ever seen quite frankly) of Geraghty on the show was him taking a two minute whoopin' from Joe Lauzon. I didn't learn much except that he doesn't do well against really good fighters who like to push the pace. I've seen Matt Wiman fight a few times, and believe me, he's much better than he showed against Manny Gamburyan. So is Joe Lauzon for that matter. That's three times I've mentioned Joe Lauzon (four now) already and I haven't even gotten to his fight. I think my man-crush is getting obvious. I don't think Wiman is quite as good as Lauzon (geez), but he's good enough to do the same thing to Geraghty. I'll take Wiman by TKO late in the first round.
I guess Dana White decided not to punish Berube after his role in the streetfight. Or did he? Berube, with all two of his fights, gets to take on (see: get fed to) Leonard Garcia, who gave Roger Huerta all he could handle on short notice in one of the best fights of the year a few months back. This doesn't look good for "Monstah". Garcia will be looking to make a statement and get himself a permanent spot in the deep UFC Lightweight Division. Berube will be looking to...get some more pub for his restaurant? Maybe he'll make Garcia a bowl of his "chowda" loaded with sedatives. Maybe he'll go quietly into the night after this ala Jason Thacker. Early night for Berube. Garcia by submission in round 1.
I'll be honest. Even after Dana White raved about Emerson and BJ Penn did the same for Maynard, I'm not all that impressed with either fighter. Emerson has good stand-up and great takedown defense, but he lacks the killer instinct needed to finish fights and be successful in this sport. Maynard is a fantastic wrestler, but is still too one-dimensional to be as effective as he could be. I see Maynard's advantage being stronger than Emerson's. Emerson will be able to keep it on the feet for a round and a half, but eventually he'll get tired of defending takedowns and he won't do enough damage to stop Maynard from making the attempts. Sometime in the second round Maynard will take him down and control him for the rest of the fight. Don't expect fireworks in this one. The easiest fight of the night to pick if you ask me. Maynard by decision.
This one could be fun. Both men's strengths lie in their ground games. Wang has shown us that he's not the smartest fighter, however, and will gladly brawl with you for three rounds if he feels like you're trying to "steal his lunch money". I see Wang being more will to stand and Miller being the one who decides he wants it on the ground, but Wang is a BJJ black belt. I expect a lot of reversals and submission attempts from both fighters. I just can't see either fighter being submitted or knocked out. I think Miller is the better fighter, but I see Wang working from top position more and we all know how the judges love that. I see Wang taking this by decision in a minor upset.
I was surprised at how well Melendez did after he came off a bit weak on the show with his minor, nagging injuries. I'll chalk that one up to editing as he looked pretty tough. He did appear to be easy pickings for Gray Maynard after he gassed in their fight though. It looked like he just wanted a way out and tapped to a choke in a fight I thought he was winning. That's not a good thing if you're about to fight Joe Lauzon. Melendez does best against stand-up fighters that he can wait to counter punch with. That's not Lauzon's game. He'll come at Melendez at 100mph from the start and wear him down quickly. It seems like the fights on this card either match up as decisions or quick, decisive victories. I see this as being the latter. Joe Lauzon by submission in round 1.
This is the first fight of the main card, and the first between fighters not on TUF 5. This is an interesting match-up. Leites has fought twice in the UFC, making him the veteran, and he gets the advantage there. Both fighters prefer to win by submission as each own six victories of that variety. Leites's only loss was to Martin Kampmann by decision, and Sword's only losses have been to Bobby Southworth and Marvin Eastman, so both men have fought tough competition. So in 22 pro fights combined, these two fighters have been finished once. Sounds like a recipe for another decision to me. I'll take the Brazilian with the better record and UFC experience eight days a week.
Well Evans comes in undefeated, so he's got that going for him, which is nice. He also hasn't faced anyone near the quality of Roger Huerta. The UFC is clearly building Huerta up for a title shot sometime next year. I wouldn't expect his train to get derailed here. Evans hasn't lost or even fought anyone, really, so it's hard to know what kind of chin he has. Giving him the benefit of the doubt and assuming he can take a decent punch, I still don't see any way this goes past round 2. That's where I say Huerta stops him with strikes. Huerta by TKO in round 2.
So this is the fight to determine who is "The Ultimate Fighter". This is also the battle of the relatives as Nate is the brother of Nick Diaz and Manny is the cousin of Karo Parisyan. This is like if Frank Stallone and Eric Roberts made a movie together, only better. I thought from the start that Nate would be here. His brother is one of the best fighters in the world, so he has a good pedigree, plus he brings the same confidence to the Octagon with him, even if it's without the swagger. I'll be the first to admit, along with Dana White, that I totally underestimated Manny. He man-handled Joe Lauzon like a rag-doll when Lauzon was thought to have the size and strength advantage.
Manny will look to run through Nate just as he has every other fighter put in front of him. I don't see him being able to submit or stop Nate, but I do see him controlling the fight and fending off submissions for three rounds. Regardless of who wins, expect to see a lot of these two in the future. Both has stepped out of the shadows of their more well known kin and have made a nice name for themselves. As far as who wins the six-figure contract, I'll take Manny by decision after a grueling, hard fought battle.
I can't believe we get to see this fight for free. A rematch five years in the making...yada, yada, yada. Watch SpikeTV or go to UFC.com if you want the hype. Plain and simple this is BJ's fight to lose. He's far more well-rounded, he's younger, and he has less miles on his body.
And don't be surprised if he decides he wants to *gasp* stand with Pulver. Did anyone notice when BJ sparred with his students on the show, he did so without headgear or even a mouthpiece? The guy can take a punch. He's also one of the best BJJ practitioners in MMA.
This one will be fun while it lasts. BJ will stand and trade with Jens for a while, but I see him eventually taking it to the ground a securing the armbar that the bell saved Pulver from all those years ago. Penn by submission in round 2.
Well there you have it folks. All the answers to life's questions. What? You don't believe me? Well correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't I go undefeated at UFC 72: Victory? I thought so. But don't copy my picks exactly. As we all learned last Saturday thanks to Randy's virtuoso performance, in case of a tie, the champ keeps the strap. So good luck to everyone and enjoy another night of free fights!
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