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UFC Light Heavyweight Crystal Ball
Date submitted: 31 May 2007
Submitted by: Sam Caplan
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Before UFC 71: Liddell vs Jackson, the UFC's light heavyweight division was the most stable of all the promotion's weight classes. The formula was fairly straightforward: Find a marketable opponent for then-champion Chuck Liddell, watch Liddell dismantle said opponent, and move on.

 

But Liddell's reign is over, and the division is in a state of disarray. In addition to Quinton "Rampage" Jackson's title win, Houston Alexander's destruction of potential contender Keith Jardine further added to the uncertain future of the light heavyweights, as well as the completion of the acquisition of Pride Fighting Championships.

 

The Pride acquisition has especially turned the division upside down. In addition to the arrival of Dan Henderson and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, UFC president Dana White hinted strongly after UFC 71 that Wanderlei Silva could be fighting under the company's banner sooner rather than later.

 

The future of Pride is even more uncertain. It's unknown just exactly what White and the Fertitta brothers have in store. Indications are that the three might not even be sure, with White saying that now that the deal is done, they will finally sit down and start making some plans.

 

Will Pride be disbanded completely with its biggest name fighters being signed to new UFC contracts? Or will the Fertittas implement their initial plan of continuing to run Pride as a separate company once the promotion's top names have toured through the UFC? Or, might most of Pride's talent roster be morphed into the UFC's, with Zuffa holding a few cards each year in Japan using the Pride name?

 

Regardless of what becomes of Pride, one thing that's certain is that Henderson and Rua will be major UFC factors in the light heavyweight division in the coming months. With so much chaos there, I decided to take a stab at sorting through some of the rubble with a look toward the future on a fighter-by-fighter basis.

 

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson. While I'm disappointed that Saturday's main event didn't even last two minutes, I'm not disappointed Jackson won. He has all the tools needed to be every bit the star Chuck Liddell has been for the UFC. All Jackson needs is the promotional push from Zuffa. Only 28, Jackson is in his athletic prime. The only thing that could prevent a long run with the title is the extraordinary depth the light heavyweight division currently boasts. Liddell fought the best in the division, and so will Jackson, but the best just got better.

 

Dan Henderson. Henderson, current holder of Pride's middleweight (205 pounds) and welterweight (183) titles, is a natural middleweight (185) but requested that the UFC allow him to compete as a light heavyweight. A promised showdown with Jackson could take place as early as September. Henderson has a lot of credibility as a light heavyweight coming off his upset knockout victory against Wanderlei Silva at Pride 33 in February but will still be considered the heavy underdog. Jackson not only has a better chin than Silva, but Jackson's wrestling strength could neutralize Henderson's strong technical wrestling ability. If Henderson isn't able to beat Jackson, a return to middleweight appears likely.

 

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. A catch weight match against Brandon Vera would be explosive. Both are very aggressive and dynamic strikers. Their styles would mesh very well, and the two could put on the fight of the year. Unfortunately, this match has no chance of happening within the next six months. There's a backlog of dream light heavyweight matchups, so there isn't a pressing need to take Vera out of the heavyweight division. Also, Vera's status is up in the air until a split from his former management is finalized. We'll likely see Rua booked for a layup in his first UFC match as a way to showcase him to novice North American fans who might not be familiar with his work. After a couple of those bouts, expect to see Rua fight for the title in early 2008.

 

Chuck Liddell. The smartest thing for Liddell at this point would be to move up to heavyweight and campaign for an immediate title shot against Randy Couture. While Jackson might have Liddell's number, Liddell clearly has Couture's, having beaten him two times in a row. A win over Couture would not only put the loss to Jackson in the rearview mirror, but holding the heavyweight title would add to Liddell's legacy. But while moving to heavyweight might be the best move for Liddell, it wouldn't be the best move for the UFC. It's obvious that "The Iceman" is a team player and will do whatever is asked of him, which will likely be accepting a long awaited dream match against Wanderlei Silva.

 

Wanderlei Silva. He recently said he planned to take the rest of the year off, but White said after UFC 71 that Liddell's likely next opponent will be Silva. The match could take place this September in London with the winner of the bout fighting for the title in December. With both Silva and Liddell coming off losses, the matchup becomes more marketable than if just one of the fighters was. There are concerns Silva could be past his prime following a devastating knockout loss against Henderson at Pride 33, but the fact that he was hospitalized with strep throat in the days leading up to the fight can't be discounted. And the fact that he'll fight Liddell the same way Jackson fought him could also spell trouble for the former UFC light heavyweight champ.

 

Keith Jardine. He's still a strong prospect in spite of his brutal loss Saturday to massive underdog Houston Alexander. Alexander's beatdown of Jardine was so brutal I half expected the Vegas Metro Police to enter the Octagon after the fight and arrest Alexander in front of a national audience. It almost seemed as if Jardine went into a state of shock while he was being leveled; he made no attempt to fight back once Alexander began his full court press. Jardine will recover and still has a bright future. It would be great to see him matched up with whoever loses the scheduled bout between Tito Ortiz and Rashad Evans at UFC 73 in July. The problem is, if it's Evans, the two are unlikely to agree to a fight since they are not only training partners at Greg Jackson's camp in New Mexico but are friends as well. It remains to be seen how long they can play the friend card, though, if Dan Henderson and Rampage Jackson are willing to put their friendship aside for 25 minutes.

 

Houston Alexander. Houston Alexander, where have you been? By taking the fight on short notice against Jardine, he guaranteed himself a second fight in the UFC. Now, it looks like he might be around a lot longer. A UFC Fight Night main event in the coming months against Jason Lambert would be a win/win for everyone involved. Regardless of who wins, the UFC would be guaranteed that one fighter would be elevated while the fans would get to see a very entertaining bout. Based on styles, a match between Alexander and Forrest Griffin would also be fairly intriguing.

 

Tito Ortiz. He was once the face of the UFC but has seen his stock drop in recent months. While he remains a strong drawing card, Ortiz is nowhere near the player he once was. As such, Ortiz will be fighting for his livelihood against Evans at UFC 73 in July. With so much depth, White can afford to be spiteful and punish Ortiz for no-showing their much-publicized sparring match. It's starting to seem that the only motivation for re-signing Ortiz after his contract expires in two fights is to prevent him from aiding competing promotions such as Bodog Fight and EliteXC. If Ortiz re-signs, it's clear he's going to have to accept a cut in pay along with less exposure. But how much of a cut will all come down to how well he fares in his next two fights. With two wins against respectable opponents, the UFC will have to make a strong offer to prevent Ortiz from accepting big money deals with Bodog or EXC. It would also either put him back into the UFC light heavyweight title picture with a potential showdown against Jackson or make him a top contender in Pride should Zuffa elect to rebuild the Japanese-based promotion. Jackson and Ortiz have said in the past they are friends, but there's little doubt the two would fight if the money was right. On the flip side, if Ortiz loses twice, he'll be fighting for pennies on the dollar unless the aforementioned promotions are willing to pay Ortiz based solely on his past.

 

Rashad Evans. Had Liddell not lost and the Pride sale not been finalized, Evans might have been one fight away from a shot at the title. But with the introduction of Shogun and Henderson into the UFC, he will likely need to string together two or three more wins before he gets it.

 

Renato "Babalu" Sobral. He's still respected by diehard MMA fans, but the UFC light heavyweight division is overcrowded right now. If Zuffa rebuilds Pride, then Sobral would be a prime candidate to fight in Japan. If Pride isn't rebuilt, or if there's a long delay, a trip to the WEC might not be such a bad idea.

 

Forrest Griffin. He'll always have a place in the UFC, according to White. So his job is safe even if he loses in another upset to Hector Ramirez at UFC 72. But Griffin no longer appears to be a future title contender. The UFC Fight Night franchise on Spike TV is struggling in the ratings, and the caliber of fights scheduled for the cards must be improved. The best way to utilize Griffin might be in UFN main events against fighters who mirror his aggressive standup style.

 

Ryoto "Lyoto" Machida. He's 10-0 in MMA and 2-0 since arriving to the UFC. He's an amazing technician, but his lack of a crowd-pleasing fighting style could keep him beneath the division's glass ceiling. With the division extremely top heavy thanks in large part to the influx of Pride talent, Machida might not make it off the preliminary portion of fight cards for quite some time.

 

Other light heavyweight wild cards include Michael Bisping and Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou. Bisping will be fighting in the UK again in September while Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou is in a state of limbo.

 

The African-born Sokodjou has an outstanding judo background and became an overnight sensation in MMA with high-profile victories in Pride over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Ricardo Arona. It's likely that he'll find his way to the UFC considering he trains under Henderson at Team Quest in Temecula, Calif. Once he arrives, he could become the future of the light heavyweight division alongside Rua and Jackson.

 

It might take up to a year for there to be total clarity in the UFC's light heavyweight division, but it's going to be a lot of fun watching it come into focus over the course of the next several months.




Source: www.sportsline.com

 
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