The UFC make their long-awaited return to the UK shores, and judging by the date they chose (new rivals Cage Rage are putting on their own event on the same night), they are planning a takeover. In fact, with the recent buyout of Pride, the UFC have taken a step towards global domination of the MMA market. The UFC management have put together a strong card, pushing new signing, heavyweight Mirko Fillipovic, as well as a wide cast of world stars, the likes of Andrei Arlovski. As if this isn’t enough to have the die-hard fan salivating, the UFC are putting some home grown talent on show in the form of David Lee and TUF 3 winner Michael Bisping. TUF 1 winner Forrest Griffin was scheduled to make an appearance on the card, but had to withdraw due to medical issues. While some of the matchmaking on the card may appear a little lopsided, there are some truly intriguing fights, and it is worth pointing out that even though some of the fights look like cynical mismatches, anything can happen in the fight game. In fact, there have been more major upsets than I can count lately, so I personally and looking forward to every single fight on the card. If the UFC are here to stay, it looks like UK fans will be in for a treat!
On paper, this fight appears to be nothing more than a lamb being led to the slaughter, which is personified in this case by scarily talented striker Mirko ‘Cro Cop’, in order to generate hype for a title fight between him and newly crowned heavyweight king Randy Couture. Gabriel Gonzaga is on a 5 fight winning streak in which he has finished every opponent. UFC fans will remember him for his fight with Kevin Jordan. For 3 and a half rounds the fighters circled and posed, showed little aggression, and the crowd booed heartily. Towards the end of the third round Gabriel decided to throw a superman punch-resulting in a highlight reel finish after one of the slowest fights in recent UFC history. So, he can bang a bit it would seem. Without doubt, he is a big, talented heavyweight. But is he world class in the way Mirko is? I don’t think so. While it is true that Cro Cop has been tagged and put away a once in MMA, and a few times in K-1, it would be a titanic upset if Gabriel can land one on him and turn out the lights in this fight. Kevin Randleman managed it, because Kevin is a freakishly athletic and explosive fighter. Gabriel isn’t. Cro Cop has already established himself for his excellent takedown defence, as well as explosive, devastating one punch/kick KO power. Ask Wanderlei Silva, Alexander Emelianenko, Mark Coleman or Heath Herring. Looking down Mirko’s list of fights, it reads like a highlight reel of vicious KO’s, against some of the best in the business. The outcome of this fight looks grim for Gabriel. I can’t see him getting Cro Cop to the ground. Noted wrestlers such as Coleman and Randleman couldn’t get him down. On the feet, I look expect Cro Cop to dismantle Gabriel in a surgical manner before chalking up another vicious KO.
This fight is the classic “striker vs grappler” confrontation. In Andrei Arlovski, you have a fighter that can strike like a heavyweight and move like a welterweight. He is dynamic, fast and well-schooled in all aspects of the game, though the stand-up is definitely his bread and butter. Conversely, Fabricio Werdum is a phenomenal BJJ practitioner with ever improving stand-up. His stand up is not on Arlovski’s level, however, as demonstrated by his losses to Sergei Kharitonov and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, where he was out struck and out hustled on the feet. Telling in these fights was that he struggled to get the fight to the ground. One could see this fight being a repeat of the Arlovski vs Marcio Cruz fight. Arlovski has shown good takedown defence in his fights, and has enough knowledge on the ground to stay out of submissions. On paper it looks like a hard night for Werdum. However, there are a few variables worth mentioning. Werdum is a tough fighter, taking hard strikes from Nogueira and Kharitonov and showing enough savvy to survive. Arlovski faded during his fight with Tim Sylvia, so it’s possible to see Werdum surviving the barrage on the feet and trying to wear Arlovski down with takedowns until he gets one. On the ground, make no mistake, Werdum is a threat. A quick look at his record tells you his submission skills are for real. If he gets on top, he could finish Arlovski. While Arlovski has shown good takedown defence, if he tires again this could give Werdum the chance he needs. The biggest factor here, I feel, will be the duration of the fight. Being a 3 rounder, I can see Arlovski’s gas tank holding together and him picking up a unanimous decision. If he catches Werdum cleanly he might be able to get the stoppage, however I think Werdum will be cautious enough to avoid being put asleep on his way to losing a clear cut decision.
TUF 3 winner and English home-grown talent Michael Bisping steps up to face dangerous veteran Elvis Sinosic in a fight which I feel will be a lot more competitive than people think. While Elvis doesn’t boast the most impressive record at 8-9-2, he is the perennial danger-man: a fighter willing to step up and face anyone, who can fight standing or on the ground. He is coming off an impressive submission of Mark Epstein in a fight where he dominated the majority of the standup with crisp, clean strikes. While he might not have knock-out power, he certainly is a good technical operator. Michael Bisping has proved himself to be a very good standup operator, as seen by his own clinical performance against Mark Epstein. He has shown his ground savvy against Eric Schafer, defending submissions and bad positions before finishing the fight with some impressive ground and pound. The UFC management must be hoping for Bisping to pull off a similar job on Sinosic as Forrest Griffin did in the hopes of generating hype for bigger match-ups in the future. In this fight, Michael Bisping is at a noticeable size disadvantage. If Elvis fights smart and uses his reach advantage he could make for a surprise (to many) spoiler in this fight. If he gets it to the ground then he is a definite threat. At 36, you have to ask if his best days are behind him though. If it turns into a long, drawn out war, will he be able to hang with the younger fighter in Bisping? I see things going to the UK fighter here, and after a rocky start, I expect Bisping to make the adjustments necessary to pull out a victory in a tough battle, and a good test for the young star in the making.
David Heath late replacement for injured Forrest Griffin, and he is putting his unbeaten record up against new UFC signing, unbeaten Lyoto Machida. While they are both 9-0, Machida’s 9-0 is against far stiffer competition. Heath looked impressive in his 2 UFC appearances, beating Cory Walmsley and Victor Valimaki via rear naked choke and split decision respectively, but Machida has looked impressive in defeating UFC legend BJ Penn, despite Penn fighting way above his ideal fight weight. Machida also blasted former UFC middleweight champion Rich Franklin in what was Franklin’s first loss, finishing the fight via vicious KO. He out-hustled veteran Vernon White in what was a cautious display, and cut Stephan Bonnar, forcing their fight to be stopped. Add to that his recent out-classing of Sam Hoger, and you are left with this observation: while both unbeaten, Machida has faced the tougher level of opposition, and come through it all. What might be in Heath’s favour in this fight is that Machida can sometimes appear cautious, and not let his heavy hands go. If Machida is cautious here it could allow Heath, who is no slouch in the stand-up department, to simply outwork him. I don’t see that happening in this fight though. On 4 weeks notice, I can’t see Heath being ready for Machida. I think the experience gained by Machida against his higher calibre opposition will be enough to see him through.
This fight promises fireworks, with 2 dangerous stand-up fighters who have both shown vulnerability on the ground. Silva’s recent performances in the UFC have not been impressive-a loss to both former UFC heavyweight champion Tim Sylvia, and up-and-comer Brandon Vera. He has since bounced back with 2 wins outside the UFC, which has earned him what could be his final shot at the big time. Cheick Kongo burst onto the UFC scene by finishing Gilbert Aldana and Christian Wellisch, and looked to bring an injection of life into what was (at the time) a dying heavyweight division. His lack of a ground game was exposed in his last fight, however-a decision loss against Carmelo Marrero in which he was basically out-wrestled. Stylistically, this is a much better match-up for Kongo than the Marrero fight, as Silva may try to stand up and bang with him. If this is the case, despite Silva’s toughness, I’d give the edge to Kongo. While Silva is a talented striker, I’d say in order to win this fight he has to put Kongo on his back and keep him under pressure. While he is not known as a submission specialist, I would definitely give the edge on the ground to Silva. It’s all a matter of whether he can bring the fight to the ground and take advantage of Kongo. If Cheick has been working hard on his sprawl and general takedown defence, I can see this being a long night for Silva.
Two unbeaten, up and coming possible stars at 155lbs face off in what looks to be one of the most intriguing fights on the card. Liverpool’s Terry Etim is definitely one of the division’s young guns at just 21, but has notched up 9 straight wins, finishing every opponent on the way. Matt Grice has been on a similar trail of destruction, also leaving 9 beaten opponents in his wake. This is where the similarities end, however. Etim comes into this fight having established himself as a dangerous fighter on the feet or on the mat, though he prefers the submission game. Matt Grice, on the other hand, is a powerful wrestler, who has also finished fights with submissions and strikes. What might set these two fighters apart is the wrestling aspect of the game. I believe Grice has the superior wrestling abilities, and thus will have the huge advantage of deciding where the fight takes place. At 5’8, he may simply be able to get under the 6’1 Etim and take the fight to the ground if he chooses, though he could be putting himself in danger by choosing to engage Etim on the mat. However, with such a height and reach disadvantage, I feel this will be his gameplan. It should make for an exciting fight, though Grice may not be able to keep himself out of Etim’s submissions if he lands in guard.
Two ground specialists could put on either a dynamic, fast paced submission fest in this fight, or cancel each other out and stall their way to the judges. Styles make fights, and when two talented grapplers meet up, the result can vary dramatically. David Lee is an aggressive, unorthodox fighter, in that he will throw caution to the wind in his attacks. His lone UFC appearance is a perfect example of this, when his first move against lightweight standout Tyson Griffin was to throw a flying knee. Even though this turned out to be a risky strategy that didn’t pay off, it’s a risk that I fully expect Lee to attempt again should the opportunity arise. Assuncao is the more experienced submission fighter on paper, however once the fighters get into the cage anything can happen. Assuncao is the naturally bigger man I feel, and this may help him power out of any danger Lee throws his way. Lee’s unorthodox attacks may lead him to victory here, a well timed flying knee for example could end things emphatically, though if I have to pick one or the other, I’d give the edge to Assuncao.
Both fighters are promising a stand-up war in what could turn out to be a real barn-burner of a fight. Sakara will be grateful, coming off of 2 straight losses this will likely be crunch time in his UFC career, and having an opponent willing to play to his strong suit must give the dangerous boxer a confidence boost. Valimaki’s only UFC fight was a loss to David Heath, and this could be his last shot at the big time too. When you put two fighters who both have “back to the wall” type situations, you are usually guaranteed an explosive fight. I would give the stand up advantage to Sakara, despite his last performance. After dominating Drew McFedries for the majority of the fight, Sakara was rocked by an uppercut and dropped to his back, where he was pounded into defeat in emphatic fashion. Sakara has shown a tendency to take fights he is clearly winning the stand-up battle in to the ground (his fight with Elvis Sinosic for example), and while his submission game is not world class, he can certainly hit from the guard. I would give an advantage to Sakara in this fight both standing an don the ground, and look for him to pull off an impressive win.
UK bases MMA fighter Jess Liaudin is a much better fighter than his patchy record suggests, showing well rounded skills. He is most dangerous from the mat however, reeling off a number of impressive submission victories. The one knock on him has to be his injury prone nose, which has plagued him in past fights, causing a number of doctor stoppages. Dennis Siver looks to have huge potential as a fighter, and has shown that he, too, is dangerous with submissions, especially leg locks. In fact, heel hook looks to be the likely finish to this fight, though who is going to slap one on first is the question. While Siver has shown good submission offence, his only 3 losses have come via submission, and Liaudin could prove to be a very bad match up for him.
Edilberto Crocota vs Paul Tyler
At 10-1, kickboxer Paul Tyler ’s gameplan in this match will be straightforward-keep the fight standing at all costs, get the KO. Against Crocota, that might still leave him in the danger-zone. While I think Tyler is the more complete striker, MMA isn’t always about complete striking skills. A heavy handed banger can catch a well-rounded striker and put them out. So while Crocota might only have his hands as weapons standing, as a former State boxing champion, that might be enough to sway the fight in his favour. On the ground I would definitely give an advantage to Crocota, training with the likes of Nogueira and Anderson Silva. Look for an exciting battle on the feet, but once the ground game kicks in, look for Crocota to pull out the victory.
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