Team 411 MMA returns with patented, hard hitting analysis of Pride's Saturday PPV. Can Dan Henderson beat Wanderlei Silva and hold two championships at once? Can former UFC star Nick Diaz upset Pride's lightweight poster boy Takanori Gomi?
Answers to all that and more is only one click away!
Hey! We did two of these in a row!
Welcome back to another roundtable discussion where we lay our reputation on the line and make public predictions regarding the upcoming fights. This time our agenda is Pride's return event to the U.S., headlined by Wanderlei Silva battling Dan Henderson. All the action starts at the fairly typical MMA viewing time of Saturday, Feb 24 at 9:00pm Eastern/6:00 pm West Coast. Also, incase you are at work and cannot catch the event, Damian Sarcuni will be providing a live play by play, right here on 411mania.
We have a new member to our panel, the honorable Ryan Mancuso. Joining him will be our regular group of "experts": Brad Jennette, Damian Sarcuni, Larry Csonka, Andrew Mellick, Michael Huckaby, and me, Caleb Newby. For those keeping score at home, Huckaby and I tied for the best pick'em record, both going 8-1. Granted, his rounds and finishes were a little more on target, but that's nitpicking
Damian Sarcuni: Now is as good a time to go public with this as any. I HATE Wanderlei Silva. I think he is the most overrated, overprotected, egotistical primate in PRIDE FC to date. Silva is a one trick monkey who constantly sticks his nose where it doesn't belong, never defends his belt, and manages to escape defeat by the skin of his teeth. He has a black belt in Jiu Jitsu and I haven't seen him do a single thing in the ring that shows me he deserves it.
When the smaller Henderson and Silva met up previously, Silva got caught by a big right hand that nearly knocked him out. Silva was then saved by the ref who checked Silva's cut, giving him time to recover. But in this rematch, that right hand WILL LAND AGAIN. Silva throws too wild and he constantly gets caught by a single shot that dazes him in several of his matches. Crocop showed that orthodox striking is all it takes to bring the big ape down, but something tells me Henderson isn't going to listen. Nevertheless, I refuse to pick Silva not only out of hate, but out of the belief that PRIDE knows they can't protect him forever.
Winner: Henderson by decision.
Ryan Mancuso: This is a rematch of a great fight these two men had over six years ago in which Wanderlei Silva won a very close decision. Henderson did rock Wanderlei with his punching in that fight. Henderson fights in the 185 pound division now, but he can hang with the elite fighters in the 205 weight class and heavyweights. Since this fight is in America, Henderson will have more things going for him because of rules that take away some of Wanderlei's weapons like knees to the head on the ground, face stomps and soccer kicks. I don't think the rule differential will play a difference. If Wanderlei is to win, then he might need to use his black belt BJJ knowledge for a submission because Henderson has a very tough chin and won't get knocked out. Henderson's can win standup with Wanderlei because he has power and accuracy with his fists. I'll go with Wanderlei by decision, but Henderson winning and holding two titles in different weight classes would not be an upset.
Caleb Newby: So, how is this going to be different than last time? In all likelihood, it won't. Sure Hendo could land the big right hand and end it, but baring that, I can't go with anything other than Silva via decision. I'd love to be proved wrong though. Should be interesting to see how Silva bounces back post Mirko if nothing else.
Michael Huckaby: I really want to say this might finally be Dan Henderson's first KO loss, not only due to age and fighting Silva but I seriously doubt this match will have 10 minutes of Henderson in the butt scoot position as their last meeting did. Not to say that wasn't a fantastic fight, because it was, but I don't see any reason this one won't end any differently. I should really have more to say but I don't so I'll compliment Pride on actually getting old man Henderson's paperwork to the NSAC on time.
Andrew Mellick:Dan Henderson has been around for a while, drifting in and out of Pride's middleweight title contention. Hendo is a solid all around fighter, has a strong chin, powerful overhand right, as well as top level wrestling in his arsenal. He also has a ton of experience and a good head for the sport. However, he is going against Wanderlei Silva, one of the most dominant champs in MMA's history. Wanderlei is ferocious and looking for blood after his loss to Crocop in the open weight grand prix in September.
I look for The Axe Murderer to come out aggressive (like an axe murderer would) and get Henderson on his heels. As long as Silva keeps his head in the game, which I think he will, Henderson and his hard head won't be able to contend Silva's striking power.
Winner: The Axe Murderer Round Three TKO
Larry Csonka:Dan Henderson has a 12-5 record in Pride, with a background in Olympic wrestling. He has gone 2-1 in his last three Pride fights, and is looking to avenge a loss to Silva at Pride 12 Cold Fury. Silva is 22-3 in Pride, going 2-1 in his last three Pride fights. He is a tremendous striker, dangerous in the clinch and is basically Kryptonite to Henderson. I think Henderson has solid skills al around, but this won't be pretty.
Damian Sarcuni:Takanori Gomi disgusts me. I used to be a fan, but anyone who goes on record saying they will only fight all out when their championship belt is not on the line is no true champion (that includes Tim Sylvia). While Gomi's striking game is the stuff of legends now, his ground game has clearly suffered as Marcus Aurelio manhandled him just a short while ago.
However, the title isn't on the line for this one, and that means Gomi will come out swinging. Nick Diaz, who is far more comfortable on the ground than he is eating punches, doesn't quite have the defenses to sub someone who will put on as much pressure as Gomi will. It's not a chin that Diaz lacks so much as it is speed.
Winner: Gomi by TKO, early round 2
Ryan Mancuso: This could easily be the fight of the night. 2007 could be the year of the lightweights with so many good fights in that division already with Din Thomas vs. Clay Guida stealing the show at the last Ultimate Fight Night, Edgar/Griffin at UFC 67 and Yves/Brown on the recent Bodog TV show. There is still plenty of lightweight action to go this year with tournaments in PRIDE, K-1 HEROS and TUF 5. Diaz is stepping down in weight class to fight the PRIDE Lightweight Champion. Both men love to stand up and throw punches. Gomi is more of wrestler and Diaz is a BJJ student of Cesar Gracie. I don't know if Gomi could KO or submit Diaz, but Diaz is good enough to submit Gomi. I don't think that drop in weight will affect Diaz's ability in this fight. This is a tough fight to pick. I'll go with Gomi in a very close decision, but I wouldn't be shocked if Diaz won either.
Winner: Gomi (Decision)
Caleb Newby: For some odd reason, I really like Nick Diaz. Then again, the same could be said for my liking of Gomi. Real question is do I think Gomi can KO Diaz. Yes, I think it's possible and a very real outcome. And while Diaz winning would be such a fantastic talking point, I can't bring myself to go that route.
Winner: Gomi TKO, Rd 3
Michael Huckaby: Easily the most anticipated fight on the card to pretty much everyone. This fight will mix alot of strange factors: Nick Diaz's first lightweight fight, the Pride vs UFC factor, and the fact Diaz is virtually impossible to stop. Gomi is the better striker, I'll call the ground game a draw because I'm feeling generous, and both men can turn on the pressure as well as they can wait it out. The fact is Gomi is known for going 110% when his title is on the line and.... not going 110% when it's not. This is a non-title fight but you have to imagine with this being Gomi's first fight in the US that he'll turn up the heat and just outwork him. I could easily see a Gomi KO here but I'm going with the odds.
Andrew Mellick: This should be an interesting fight. Diaz can strike and likes to end things quickly and on his turms. Gomi is the decision kid, having no qualms about simply "not losing" to retain his title. However, this is not a title fight, so maybe Gomi will poke his head out a few times and take a risk.
If Gomi goes into it with the risk taker attitude, I see him winning this. However, Diaz is a striker and powerful, if Gomi sits on his heels too much then he could really pay the price for it. So who do I choose? Well, I'm going to make this my upset of the night and go with Diaz. I may pay for this later but I just have a feeling Diaz is going to come out swinging and Gomi's song and dance routine won't hold up.
Winner: Diaz TKO round two
Larry Csonka: Gomi is 13-1 in Pride, going 3-0 in his last three Pride bouts. He has equally impressive boxing and wrestling skills, and has been dominating lightweight fighting. This is Diaz's debut in Pride, but will be familiar to UFC fans. He has jujitsu and boxing skills, but coming from the Caesar Gracie camp, I hope he takes a punch better.
Damian Sarcuni: This is a rematch of one of the better matches of 2005, which saw Shogun out strike the big dutch man in the first round. You can't really go by records or even by the previous match for this one, though. Shogun is a supposed MMA genius who is riding high on a 3 win streak, more if you only count losses in his normal weight class. Yet in his last match against Kazuhiro Nakamura, Shogun wasn't able to pull out any of his usual offense. He looked awful. The reality is that since Rua and Wanderlei Silva won't fight out of respect for their team and friendship, Shogun cannot test himself against the top 205lb fighters in the world and we can't tell how close he is to the limits of his ability.
Alistair Overeem is just as much of a mystery. Though he comes off of two losses, one of these was ended prematurely (read: Overeem was injured and his saftey was in danger but he had no problems in the fight) and yet he looked incredible against Vitor Belfort. You just never know which Alistair Overeem is going to show up, and if Shogun's last match is any indication we don't know if either fighter will bring any aggression at all. I hate to pick against Overeem though. He always wins when I do.
Winner: Overeem by TKO 3rd round.
Ryan Mancuso: This is a rematch of the 2005 PRIDE Middleweight Grand Prix Semi-Finals where Shogun showed the world that he is a force in the world of MMA. Since then, their careers have taken opposite directions. After a brief set back with an arm injury against Mark Coleman, Shogun has victories over Kevin Randleman and Kazuhiko Nakamura. With Overeem, it seemed that the loss to Shogun was not a setback because he came back with a dominant victory over 2004 PRIDE Heavyweight Grand Prix Semi-Finalist Sergei Kharitonov. Since then, things have gone downhill for Overeem. He defeated Vitor Belfort in a really dull fight at Strike Force. He lost to Fabricio Wedrum, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Ricardo Arona. There is no shame in losing to any of those guys. People have been questioning his heart because of the way that he has lost to Rogerio and Arona. This fight could be what Overeem needs to get his head back in the fight game. In my opinion, I am still taking Shogun with a TKO in the second round. Overeem's endurance has always been his weak point. Shogun is just too good to get KO'ed or Guillotined by Overeem in the first round.
Winner: Shogun Rua (Round 2, TKO)
Caleb Newby: Shogun was so utterly disappointing his last go around that I almost want to pick Overeem. But I feel the same as Ryan that Shogun is too good to get caught by Overeem here. So that leaves either Overeem via decision, or my banking on Shogun to return to form and take another solid win.
Winner: Shogun TKO, Rd 2
Michael Huckaby: Our second rather unnecessary rematch in three fights. Just like the first I don't see this being different in any way. Many excuses were made for Shogun after the Nakamura fight, citing possible injury, jetlag, or sickness. I'll personally just chalk it up to Nakamura being a skilled fighter. They'll come out and exchange for a bit, Shogun will either begin getting the best of it or it will be even when Alistair does his personal favorite of tiring out. Either way this will last about as long as the first one with a similar outcome.
Winner: Shogun Rua, TKO, Rd2
Andrew Mellick: This is Overeem's chance to exact some revenge after losing to Rua back in August 2005. Since that time Shogun has continued to tear through the MMA world with a vengeance. He has racked up 3 wins and only one loss, which was due to a freak broken arm. Meanwhile Overeem has been on the skids, currently on a 2 fight losing streak to the likes of Ricardo Arona and Antonio Nogueira (both of whom Shogun has beat.)
I look for Shogun to come out and try to end this one soundly, putting to rest the question of who is the better fighter. Overeem is talented, but Shogun is too powerful and I think he'll catch him looking.
Winner: Shogun Round 2 TKO
Larry Csonka: Rua walks in with an 11-1 Pride record, and is 3-0 is his last three Pride fights. I dig Rua as a fighter as he uses some sweet high kicks, knees, strikes and stomps, which rule. Overeem is 7-6 in Pride, going 0-3 in his last three Pride fights. He is here to lose and lose badly. Anything can happen in a fight, but Rua should win easily.
Damian Sarcuni: Anyone who thinks the PRIDE card is full of mismatches should look no further than this bout. Sakurai (the good one, not Ryuta) ties Joachim Hansen as being second only to Gomi in the lightweight divison, and with good reason. Sakurai is dangerous everywhere and loves to control a fight from start to finish. It's very difficult to get him out of his gameplans, and with motivation like United States fan's respect on the line I think we'll see the best of Sakurai here.
Mac Danzig is no joke either, touting fights with big names like Jason Ireland and Jason von Flue. Danzig recently dropped a controversial split decision loss to Clay French at KOTC - Hard Knocks, and I'm pretty certain Sakurai has enough ground defense to roll around with Danzig on the mat for awhile. It's hard for me to imagine Danzig getting knocked out here, but its equally hard for me to imagine Sakurai getting subbed.
Winner: Sakurai by decision.
Ryan Mancuso: King of the Cage veteran Mac Danzig is facing the toughest opponent of his career against Hayato "Mach" Sakurai. Danzig deserves the opportunity to fight in the bigger organizations, but he is being thrown into the fire in his PRIDE debut against Sakurai. Sakurai has faced some of the best fighters in many weight classes including Matt Hughes, Anderson Silva, Takanori Gomi, Joachim Hansen, Frank Trigg, etc. Sakurai's experience just puts him on another level than Danzig and that is why I am picking him to win the fight via TKO first round.
Winner: Sakurai (Round 1, TKO)
Caleb Newby: Gosh, I don't have anything clever to say other than I am picking Sakurai. Which isn't really all that clever. Sorry.
Winner: Sakurai TKO, Round 3
Michael Huckaby: I really like Mac Danzig, but unfortunately Pride continued their history of throwing bright new talent into the lions den. And I mean that in the bad "get mauled by a lion" way, not the more promising "they all get to fight Ken Shamrock" way. Either way, I like Danzig and I'm searching for reasons to pick him for the upset but it's just not coming to me. On the plus side, I can see Danzig lasting longer than a couple of minutes and presenting a good showing of himself.... maybe he'll get Zulu next.
Winner: Mach Sakurai, TKO, Rd2
Andrew Mellick: This is quite a night of debuts as Mr. Danzig will enter the Pride ring for the first time. However, unlike the other first timers, Danzig enters the ring with a fair amount of MMA experience and success.
He will need that experience as he faces Sakurai, one of the top ranked light weights in the world. I do have some interest in this fight; Danzig looks impressive and has only lost in decisions. While, I root for the upset, I can't go against the one of the most experienced fighters in light weights out there. Sakurai has seen a lot and Danzig is going to need something big to pull the victory.
Larry Csonka: Danzig makes his Pride debut on this show as well. Trained in wrestling, jujitsu and boxing he is well rounded and has an overall MMA record of 16-3-1. Sakurai has only fought in Pride, with a record of 7-3 and going 2-1 in his last three fights. The man is fast and likes to show off, which could be a kiss of death.
Damian Sarcuni: This bout scares me. Frank Trigg is a sneaky bastard and lately he only takes fights he is absolutely sure he can win. Though Trigg clearly does have respect for Misaki, I am absolutely certain he knows of some hole in Misaki's game that he feels he can exploit. Trigg ended last year with a bang by getting a TKO on Jason "Mayhem" Miller, earning himself the ICON Sport championship belt. Trigg seems well rested and in better shape than in his last few fights, so don't think for a second that PRIDE's color commentator is anything but dangerous.
Misaki, on the other hand, is crazy. Nevermind that he somehow managed to win the PRIDE welterweight tournament AFTER GETTING ELIMNATED, but he managed to beat champion Dan Henderson in the process. For god's sake, the man not only stood with Phil Baroni and lived, he outstruck the NY badass and won. Like many in team Grabaka, Misaki has a great chin and is very cerebral in a fight. I have no doubt Trigg sees a weakness in Misaki, but I sure as hell don't.
Winner: Misaki by TKO, round 3.
Ryan Mancuso:Frank Trigg steps out of the commentary booth and into the ring to face the controversial PRIDE 2006 Welterweight Grand Prix champion in Kazuo Misaki. Trigg is also moving up a weight class to take this fight. Trigg is a very good wrestler. If a wrestler the level of Dan Henderson had his troubles with Misaki, then I don't see how Trigg will have any better luck. Misaki is a good striker, but he is more about accuracy than knockout power. Misaki trains in submissions with Team Grabaka. Trigg has been a victim of the rear naked choke in his fights with Matt Hughes (twice) and Georges St. Pierre. Misaki's most recent wins have come via decision and I think that will be the same result here.
Winner: Misaki (Decision)
Caleb Newby: Dear old Frank Trigg. After his retirement, Trigg's made a comeback and gotten back to his winning ways. All that aside, I was going to take Misaki by rear naked choke anyway as a gag, but if you keep reading you'll see why I can't do that. So instead I am taking the reverse route.
Winner: Trigg RNC, Round 2
Michael Huckaby: I don't like Frank Trigg. In fact while watching PPVs with friends on the couch we'll routinely imitate Trigg and the things he'd say if/when he were commentating. If a guy is holding someone in his guard, an old stand still is "If I were him I'd flip over onto my stomach right now and lift my head up to look at the clock." Trigg is really going to need to get this to the ground and quickly. He's recently talked about working on his standup but Misaki, while not great himself, could still pick him apart. Trigg will need to rely on his wrestling and get solid ground control if he wants to win this fight. Personally, as hard as he's working I don't think he's quite at the level Misaki is at right now. I'd normally pick him by decision but I'm feeling karmaic... karma...matic. Karm... whatever.
Winner: Kazuo Misaki, RNC, Rd3
Andrew Mellick: The Grabaka Hitman, how can you go against a guy with that nickname? In all seriousness, I give the edge to Misaki. He is tough as nails and very hungry to get into title contention, and with big wins over Dan Henderson and Dennis Kang, the 2006 welterweight grand prix champ is on a tear.
Trigg on the other hand is a seasoned veteran of the MMA and a fan favorite. He has twice challenged for the UFC welterweight title, losing both times to Matt Hughes. However, since then he has been in only a few fights and has concentrated more on his announcing than anything else.
Winner: The Grabaka Hitman Round three Submission
Larry Csonka: Trigg is 1-0 in Pride (10-2 overall) with a wrestling background. Misaki is 4-3 in Pride, 2-1 in his last three Pride fights, but coming off a loss. I think this is a fight designed for Trigg towin, but I think he'll struggle and we'll go to the cards.
Damian Sarcuni: Ok ok, this one's a filler. Sokoudjou has a 2-1 MMA record. Rogerio is an Olympic level boxer and is the brother of one of the greatest Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practitioners of all time.
Winner: Nogueira by KO round 2.
Ryan Mancuso: This looks like to be the biggest mismatch of the entire show. Rogerio has great submission knowledge like his brother, but he has also improved his striking by taking up more boxing. He scored a big TKO over kickboxing specialist Alistair Overeem. Sokoudjou has just started MMA as this is his fourth career fight. He lost his last fight by TKO and now is facing an opponent that is much tougher than anyone he has faced before. I see Rogerio using this fight as an exhibition to improve on his standup and he'll win via TKO in the first round.
Winner: Rogerio (Round 1, TKO)
Caleb Newby: I love a slaughter, so Lil' Nog better not disappoint. The debate seems to be around if Nog will decide to box or finish on the ground. And I'm not going to lie, I don't have a clue who his opponent is. I'll flip a coin for the first round decision, KO or sub
Winner: Lil' Nog Sub, Round 1
Michael Huckaby: Why?
Winner: Little Nog, sub, Rd1
Andrew Mellick: Another debut, Sokoudjou has earned his chance to fight with the big boys. However, this looks less like a big debut and more like when they put that lamb in the T rex cage in Jurassic Park. Big Nog is falls somewhere in the top four for everyone's heavyweight list. He is an incredibly smart fighter and one who knows submissions.
I'm not taking any credit away from Sokoudjou, he may be a good fighter. But with only two wins to his name and no experience in the big leagues, I can't help but look at this of Pride's way of saying "Hey America, watch this guy get squashed." Look for the big city lights to catch Sokoudjou's eyes and Nog to end this one quickly.
Larry Csonka: Nogueira is 7-1 in Pride, going 2-1 in his last three fights and I dig his stand up game. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou is debuting in Pride, and has no MMA record to speak of. This does not bode well for young Mr. Thierry Sokoudjou. He will die.
Damian Sarcuni: Jason Ireland's name has been tossed around the lesser MMA organizations for years now. He seems to love his submissions, and this would look bad for Hansen who has been working more on his boxing game than on MMA in recent months. Add into this Hansen's recent loss to Shinya Aoki via gogoplata submission, and Ireland looks like he could be Hansen's kryptonite. But Hansen doesn't take losses lightly and he remains one of the top three most lethal lightweights in the world.
Winner: Hansen by KO (no look knee) round 2.
Ryan Mancuso: Hansen will be coming into this fight with a little more motivation after getting submitted very quickly by Shinya Aoki on New Year's Eve. Ireland has been fighting for King of the Cage and looks to step up in PRIDE in hopes of giving Hansen his second straight loss. Ireland likes to win with submissions. Hansen has lost 3 of his 5 fights via submission, but Ireland is not at the level of submission knowledge that Shinya Aoki and Vitor Riberio are. I am picking Hellboy via KO in the second round.
Winner: Hansen (Round 2, KO)
Michael Huckaby: This is more interesting than the credit it's getting. I've seen Ireland in King of the Cage and he's a solid fighter with a handful of UFC vets on his resume. Hansen showed in the Aoki fight that he's still not progressing on the ground like he should be, I've never seen anyone get gogoplata'd that easily, not even in a beginners BJJ class. On the other hand Ireland has a decent submission game and also makes a habit of not getting caught on the jawline. To be honest I'll probably pick Hansen in the forum pick'ems but since the roundtable won't hurt my "legacy" (I use words very loosely) I'll go ahead and pick the upset.
Andrew Mellick: Ireland has racked himself up an impressive record that no doubt has carried him to the big leagues. However, his Pride debut is against none other than rising star, Hellboy Hansen.
Ireland is a smart fighter, who will look for his opportunity, while I look for Hansen to push the pace, looking to keep Jason on edge. In the end it will be a tired Ireland succumbing to the power of Hellboy.
Winner: Hellboy Hansen Round 3 TKO
Larry Csonka: Hansen is 3-2 in Pride, 1-2 in his last three fights on Pride. Ireland is debuting in Pride and has no MMA record to speak of. What the hell, "upset" win here.
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