At UFC 66Tito Ortiz will be stepping into a fight where the majority of the MMA world is picking him to come out second best. Since losing to Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, Chuck Liddell has reeled off 6 KO wins against tough competition, including Tito in their first match-up. In the first fight, Chuck demonstrated why he is a bad match-up for any wrestler. He effortlessly stuffed both takedowns Tito attempted, and controlled the stand-up from start to finish. The end of the fight has been a point of controversy since, with Chuck Liddell “haters” accusing him of thumbing Tito in the eye and then jumping on him. Let’s put this issue to rest once and for all-with thumbless gloves, people are going to catch fingers and thumbs to the eyes sometimes. It’s something that comes with the competition, and while unfortunate, looks to be something unlikely to be solved anytime soon. Now back to the fight. Tito jumped in on Chuck with a left hook-right cross combination, to which Chuck threw a left jab/hook counter, catching Tito in the eye with his thumb. Tito showed that he was ruffled, and Chuck showed the cold, ruthless finishing that got him the nickname the “Iceman”. A flurry of punches later, and Tito lay on the octagon floor defeated. That fight was back in 2004 though. So now the big question-has enough changed the last two years to lead Tito to a sensational upset victory?
Since being knocked out by Chuck, Tito has turned in a few mixed performances. He was rocked by both UFC newcomer Patrick Cote and Vitor Belfort, though recovered both times and pulled out a win. He put on a devastating ground and pound clinic against Forrest Griffin for a round, but faded away in the second and third round of that fight, and hung on to win a split decision. He then blitzed Ken Shamrock inside of a round on two occasions. Since his fight with Chuck Liddell, Tito hasn’t really looked confident in his stand-up, and was out-boxed by Forrest in the second round of their fight. He wanted no part of the stand-up with Vitor Belfort, and displayed good takedown abilities and grit in that fight. Tito seems to have realised that the stand-up isn’t where he is strongest, and is aggressively pursuing the ground game every time out now. His double leg has looked low and fast, and the first takedown he landed on Forrest Griffin is a perfect example of that. But Forrest doesn’t have the sprawl of Chuck Liddell.
As already stated, since knocking out Tito Ortiz, Chuck has gone on to knock out Vernon White, Randy Couture (twice),Jeremy Horn and Renato Sobral. He was never in trouble in any of these fights, controlling the pace of each fight and dictating where it would take place, i.e. on the feet, where he has an advantage over anyone in the division. He has refined his style to be the perfect “anti-wrestler” style. He sprawls away from any shoot attempt effectively, he disengages any clinch quickly to get the fight back where he wants it. Chuck has evolved into a deadly counter puncher, drawing people on and catching them. Tito has openly stated that he is going to press the pace and tire Chuck out (ala Randy Couture vs Chuck Liddell 1). This strategy would, in my eyes, lead to a first round KO in Chuck’s favour. When Randy attempted to repeat his first fight strategy against Chuck in their rematch, he was put out in a round. Sobral charged Chuck and was put down in under two minutes. Nobody has “mugged” Chuck successfully since iron-jawed “Rampage” Jackson did, and he possesses a more sturdy jaw than Tito, and heavier hands. I feel that while Chuck had to respect Rampage’s power and was forced on the defensive, if Tito attacks him the same way, Chuck can afford to open up with counters and not worry too much about what is coming his way.
Will age and lifestyle be a factor in this fight? Tito has isolated himself up in Big Bear to focus on nothing but the fight. His training camps in Big Bear have become the stuff of legends, and he pushes himself relentlessly until he is in shape. Chuck on the other hand has come into fights in the past overconfident, out of shape, and he has paid the price for it. Between fights Chuck has been known to “blow up” in weight and party hard. Will this take a toll on his 37 (38 by fight time) year old body? Will the first fight make him complacent and overconfident? Will he be able to push himself to get into the kind of shape he needs to be in to fight a motivated, dangerous Ortiz, knowing he controlled the first fight? Only Chuck knows the answers to these questions. If he underestimates Tito, he could be in for a long, gruelling fight.
Can Tito Ortiz win this fight? In my eyes, this is just a very bad match-up for Tito. While Tito is super-conditioned, and can push the pace for 5 rounds relentlessly more often than not, I feel in this fight conditioning simply won’t be a factor. Tito will probably pursue the takedown more aggressively in this fight, and look for a shot every chance he gets. There is a possibility he might even get one, but Chuck has demonstrated time and time again that he has to be dog tired to be held on his back. Randy Couture and “Rampage” Jackson both struggled to keep Chuck down until he tired. Tito will once again be forced to stand with Chuck, which is a position Tito isn’t used to. He had been able to bring his last fights to the ground almost at will and force the other fighter to fight his fight. I don’t think he can do that with Chuck. If Tito can be crafty and cagey, he might be able to survive late and start to wear Chuck out, but I can’t see it happening. I predict a fired-up Tito will put up a good effort, but Chuck Liddell will force Tito into a stand-up fight and in a stand-up fight with Chuck Liddell there is only ever going to be one outcome...
Chuck Liddell, KO in the first round.
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